A precise price target is a story pretending to be math. The honest answer is always a range, and usually a wide one.
Any valuation that produces a single number is hiding its assumptions. Change the growth rate by two points or the discount rate by one, and the answer moves twenty percent. That's not a flaw in the model — it's the truth about uncertainty.
The useful question isn't 'what is it worth,' it's 'under what plausible assumptions is this a good investment, and how likely are those assumptions.' That framing keeps me honest about the range and about my own confidence.
Selling is harder than buying. It requires admitting a thesis has drifted, or that a position has grown too large to ignore.
The numbers tell you what happened. The letter tells you how the CEO thinks about what happened. Both matter.
The best moats aren't a single feature. They're a flywheel of small advantages that only works once you've already won.
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